CHINA'S trade surplus this year may be lower than last year's because exports are likely to be weak in the following months, analysts said, after the country reported the slowest growth in trade in six months in July.

"Given the grim prospects for global economic recovery, China's exports may stay low, if not contract, in the months to come," said the Bank of Communications in a report.

BoCom forecast that China's total trade surplus at around US$150 billion this year, slightly down from the US$155.1 billion in 2011.

In the first seven months, China's trade surplus rose 23.4 percent annually to US$94.1 billion.

"China's monthly trade surplus will continue to narrow," BoCom said.

Last month, China had a trade surplus of US$25.1 billion, down from June's US$31.7 billion, as its exports edged up 1 percent from a year earlier in July, weakening sharply from the 11.3 percent rise in June.

"The export slowdown is likely to be worrisome for policymakers as exports still account for one-third of China's economic output," said Chang Jian, a Barclays economist. "Soft exports may also lead to a weaker yuan, at least in the short term."

Last week Barclays said it would lower its projection of China's gross domestic product growth in 2012 to 7.9 percent from a previous estimate of 8.1 percent.

Chang said the government may boost its support for more investments to stabilize growth, loosen monetary policy and increase export tax rebates.