Market professionals prospected that product carrier and chemical tanker segments would continue to pick up, while crude carrier will see protracted stagnancy in 2013.

Crude carrier, in particular, could keep struggling from harsh business environment by the end of 2014, if things gets serious. Oversupply and sharp increase in tonnage supply exceed rising shipping demand for oil, they explained.

According to DVB, a total of 178 newbuilding crude carriers were delivered in 2012, while 107 vessels are scheduled to hit the water this year. Crude carrier tonnage, as of today, stands at 2,334 vessels, up by 20% on October 2008. Therefore, the bank expected that the segment will suffer from additional decline in rates and newbuilding prices in 2013.

It forecasted amid newbuilding prices hitting the bottom over the next 12 to 18 months, new orders for crude carriers would increase with deliveries due after 2015. Shipowners would look for newbuildings to be delivered when the market improves.

Large scale of MR PCs were ordered in 2012, but its order is to be reduced this year. Also, some pointed out that due to massive orders seen in 2012, MR market may not be recovered from 2014 as expected.

As for chemical tanker, large-scale scrapping of older ships is expected to continue over the next several years, therefore, tonnage renewal would follow after demolition. Chemical tanker-specialized German owner Gefo projected that about 30% of stainless-steel chemical tanker fleet would go to scrapping facilities over the next four years due to old ages.

Meanwhile, according to Clarkson, as of December 2012, very large crude carrier over 200,000 dwt stood at 79 newbuildings on order, while suezmax ranging 120,000-200,000 dwt at 82 vessels, aframax 80,000-120,000 dwt at 49 vessels and panamax from 60,000-80,000 dwt at 35 vessels. Newbuilding orderbook of MR PC ranging 30,000-60,000 dwt marked 144 vessels, while that of small PC under 30,000 dwt and chemical tanker from 10,000 dwt to 60,000 dwt posted nine vessels and 133 vessels, respectively.

As for existing tanker fleet by size as of December, VLCC stood at 609 vessels, suezmax at 469 vessels, aframax at 911 vessels, panamax at 417 vessels, tanker ranging 10,000-60,000 dwt at 3,351 vessels.

In case of proportion of orderbook to active fleet ratio by size, on the basis of deadweight, suezmax accounted for the largest with 17.5%, followed by VLCC (13.4%), MR PC (12%), chemical tanker (10.2%), panamax (8.6%), aframax (5.5%), small PC (3.1%), etc.

During the first 11 months of 2012, 12 VLCCs, six suezmaxes, eight aframaxes, six panamaxes were newly ordered, as well as 55 MR PCs (around 30 vessels booked in December), one small PC and 32 chemical tankers were awarded for orders.

As of December, 2012, newbuilding prices for VLCC posted $94m, those for suezmax, aframax, panamax and MR PC marked $57.5m, $49m, $41.5m and $34m, each.

From January to November of last year, 46 VLCCs, 46 suezmaxes, 41 aframaxes, 14 panamaxes, 33 MR PCs, eight small PCs and 62 chemical tankers were delivered, while 10 VLCCs, 21 suezmaxes, 36 aframaxes, five panamaxes, 19 MR PCs, 10 small PCs and 21 chemical tankers headed towards scrap facilities.



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