US IMPORT volume at major container ports is expected to rise 10.1 per cent this month over the same time last year even as west coast ports come closer to a possible shutdown as contract talks with dockers reach an impasse.
This is the analysis of the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Ports covered posted a 9.3 per cent year on year increase to 1.44 million TEU in December, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available.
That was up 3.2 per cent from November and brought the 2014 total to 17.3 million TEU, an increase of 6.6 per cent year on year.
January was estimated at 1.48 million TEU, up 7.5 per cent from January 2014. February is forecast at 1.37 million TEU, up 10.1 per cent from last year; March at 1.34 million TEU, up three per cent; April at 1.49 million TEU, up 4.3 per cent; May at 1.56 million TEU, up 4.9 per cent, and June also at 1.56 per cent, up 5.3 per cent.
Those numbers would bring the first half of 2015 to 8.8 million TEU, an increase of 5.8 per cent over the same period last year.
"East coast ports have been the beneficiaries of the labour disputes on the west coast," Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said, referring to the shift of market share that has occurred as cargo has been diverted in recent months because of west coast congestion. "We have to admit that we underestimated the level of the switch."
Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Houston.
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