CHINA's export growth slowed in the January-February period largely due to base effects, and though the data beat expectations, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has heightened uncertainty over the outlook for global trade this year, reports Reuters.
Outbound shipments rose 16.3 per cent in the first two months of the year from the same period a year earlier, official data showed, beating analysts' expectations for a 15 per cent rise, but down from 20.9 per cent gain in December.
Imports increased 15.5 per cent, easing from a 19.5 per cent gain in December and below the forecast 16.5 per cent increase.
"These numbers will probably be well received. China's exports are high and also the imports are continuing," said Louis Kuijs, Asia Pacific chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, adding that exports remain one component of the economy still supporting growth.
"We need to see how long the economic impact (from the Ukraine crisis) will last. China's economy overall is big and should be able to continue to grow even in the face of external shocks, but export growth will be affected."
Russia's invasion of Ukraine that raised mounting international sanctions against Moscow have brought fresh risks for the global economy, adding to months-long strains for China's factories from worldwide supply chain snags.
Tian Yun, former vice director of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, expects China-Europe trade may be disrupted due to the conflict in Ukraine. "If the Ukraine crisis halts China-EU freight train services or leads to a slower operation efficiency, there will be adverse impact to EU and China's trade. This might be the biggest risk."
Chinese exporters with exposure to Ukrainian markets have delayed shipments, while some factories with business in Russia have been waiting for payment from their clients before arranging the next shipments, factory officials and analysts told Reuters.
China's exports to Russia surged 41.5 per cent in the first two months of the year, topping growth with other countries, customs data showed on Monday, while imports from Russia rose 35.8 per cent.
Lian Weiliang, a vice head at the National Development and Reform Commission, expects the overall cost issues for importers to remain manageable despite rising energy prices driven by the Ukraine crisis.
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