The tanker market will receive a much needed boost if press speculation that China plans to bring forward a ban on single hull tankers by one year turns out to be true, Fearnley Fonds says.

Such a move could help address the supply and demand balance and lift spot market earnings, it believes.

Analyst Rikard Vabo says China's potential veto on singe hull tankers by 1 January 2010 would also have a positive impact on the domestic shipbuilding and scrapping industry.

He said: "If single-hulls were to be banned in China already from the end of this year we believe this could have a significant impact on rates."

"Despite lower utilisation on single hull tonnage than double hull tonnage we believe they have directly or indirectly put pressure on rates downwards from their existence the last year."

Vabo says the scrapping of the single hull fleet would take some of the sting out of the newbuilding orderbook.

"Looking at the single hull tankers to the total fleet it amounts to about 15% of the sailing fleet and 40% of the existing orderbook," the analyst said.

This rises to 43% of the orderbook for VLCCs and 53% for aframaxes, Fearnley Fonds' figures show.

"The sailing single hull tonnage makes out a substantial share of the expected gross deliveries in million dead weight tonnes for the remainder of 2009 and 2010," Vabo added.

This is particularly true given the fact about 20% of newbuildings expected to be delivered in 2009 have not arrived as planned, he explains.

Only newspaper reports have alluded to China bringing a ban on single hull tankers forward until the start of next year.

Vabo acknowledges this raises some doubt as to whether the policy will be implemented.

However, he says such a move would benefit the domestic shipbuilding industry, which could potentially have lobbied for the change given the slump in recent ordering activity.

It would also benefit China's shipbreakers and present a positive image at a time when the environment is such a focus of international media attention, Vabo adds.