Drewry Shipping Consultants continues to see a more stable container market next year. In its latest report entitled Annual Container Market Review & Forecast 2010/11, editor Neil Dekker opined: 'Carriers will react decisively by taking capacity out of the system and will not return tonnage in 2011 until demand has shown the required upturn.'

He continued: 'Maintenance of the positive supply/demand equilibrium next year is dependent on the continuation of this disciplined approach. Lay-ups could be a feature if there is any overcapacity returning. By managing capacity at the individual trade route level, they have been able to rapidly improve freight rates and their profitability.'

The analyst expects mid to long-term container cargo growth will be about 7% per annum for the next five years. Although the recent decline in east-west spot freight rates is not expected to continue for much longer as carriers react by pulling out tonnage, it does not expect average east-west rates to rise next year.

On the other hand, North-South tradelanes are expected to grow in importance next year, particularly those involving the East Coast of South America.

Shippers are advised to pay more attention to contracts in future. Dekker elaborated: 'The basic contract between shipper and carrier should no longer be seen as a straight rate deal. Once again, a combination of slow-steaming, fewer weekly strings and increasing vessel-sharing agreements between carriers means that the traditional carrier/shipper partnership has changed forever. Shippers and carriers need to think much more creatively and need to work together constructively to provide much needed security in the supply chain. The relationship between the two parties must be repaired and carriers must now look to properly differentiate themselves once again from their competitors.'